As we stand at the threshold of a new year, many of us reach for the language of change: “I’m going to manifest a new reality.” Rarely do we pause to ask: what does that really mean—and what are the risks when we lean on it too heavily? I want to give some space around, though seemingly a positive practice, why the belief of 'manifesting' is problematic.

The idea of manifestation—of thinking something into being—is seductive. It promises control, speedy transformation, a narrative in which you speak the right words or hold the right image and “boom”—life shifts. But beneath the surface there’s a problem: the version of manifesting that circulates in pop-psychology often sidesteps reality. It downplays luck, structural forces, chance happenings. It suggests that if you truly believe, you will become. And when things don’t shift—when the job doesn’t come, or the relationship doesn’t transform—it places the burden back on you: you didn’t believe enough, visualise hard enough, align the energy tightly enough.

What the science tells us

There is nothing wrong with setting intentions, articulating a vision of where you want to go. But there is something wrong with believing that thought alone—without action, without some chance, without external factors—is a guarantee.

• Here are real experts with verifiable findings:

  • Richard Wiseman, PhD (psychologist, University of Hertfordshire):
    “There is no scientific evidence to support the idea that thinking positively can bring good fortune.”
    (The Luck Factor, 2003)

  • Gabriele Oettingen, PhD (motivation scientist, NYU):
    “Positive fantasies are de-energizing. They make people relax rather than take action.”
    (Rethinking Positive Thinking, 2014)

  • Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Prize, psychology/economics):
    “Success is always a mixture of talent and luck.”
    (Thinking, Fast and Slow, 2011)

  • Barbara Ehrenreich (author, cultural critic):
    “When positive thinking fails, people blame themselves.”
    (Bright-Sided, 2009)

  • Carol Dweck, PhD (Stanford psychologist):
    “Believing in your potential must be accompanied by effort, strategies, and help from others.”
    (interviews on Growth Mindset)

    Taken together, these researchers tell a consistent story: Thoughts influence feelings. Actions influence outcomes.
    Magical thinking sits somewhere in between and often collapses when life doesn't cooperate.

Where manifesting becomes dangerous

Putting everything on manifestation has several pitfalls:

• It shifts accountability from real-world systems onto the individual.

• It can create fragility. When things don’t appear, you blame yourself.

• It erases complexity: timing, privilege, relationships, resources, health, luck.

• It sets people up for quiet shame when the “universe” does not respond.

• As one writer warns: “When manifesting fails, people may feel they have themselves to blame, rather than recognising external constraints.” Therapy Near Me+1

  Barbara Ehrenreich calls this “a system of denial,” not empowerment.

A more grounded alternative

This isn’t to say that feeling hopeful, envisioning your next steps, choosing language that supports you—is bad. Far from it. The craft is in how you do it. Here are three shifts you might consider for the new year:

1. Let vision meet action
   Rather than simply and passively state: “I will attract X,” try: try instead “I will move toward X in these specific ways.” Visualisation is useful only when paired with action. As one expert puts it: “Thought alone won’t create real change.” CNA+1

2. Acknowledge the full terrain
   Be aware of what you can influence—and what you cannot. Your mindset, your effort, your behaviour: yes. But timing, systemic support, other people’s choices: not entirely. Recognising this isn’t defeat—it’s realism. It keeps you from collapsing when things don’t follow your script.

3. Celebrate what is working
   One danger of focusing solely on what’s missing: you feel like you’re always failing. Instead, incorporate a regular check-in: what small step moved you closer? What part of your upstream strategy is showing up? That builds resilience, momentum, and a more honest sense of progress—not just a distant “finish line" where you wonder when the manifestation train will reach.

For 2026: a prompt

As the calendar flips, you might ask yourself:

• Where do I want to go this year (in terms of body, work, connection, identity)?

• What one concrete thing will I do in the next 30 days to move toward that?

• What external factors could help or hinder me—and how will I respond if I hit a wall?

• How will I notice progress, even if the final outcome remains out of reach?

By doing this you hold both: vision and realism. Goal and process. Agency and humility.

Final word

Manifesting can become a seductive promise: think it, see it, get it. But real life doesn’t always honour that formula. Reflecting, aiming, choosing well: those are worthy. But they don’t—cannot—operate alone. Let your mindset be a partner to action and context, not its substitute. Then, when the year unfolds and things don’t go exactly to plan, you’ll have more than one way to understand what’s happening. You’ll have resilience, not just belief.